—by Chris Rifer
They’re the two most bizarre trends of the season.
The Portland Timbers have allowed 13 goals between the 16th and 30th minutes of matches and scored none. The next leakiest teams during that period? Chivas USA, Toronto FC, San Jose Earthquakes, and LA Galaxy are all tied for a shameful second with seven. Yeah, the same number seven that is almost half of the Timbers’ 13. As for the Timbers’ inability to convert in the second quarter-hour, Portland is the only team in MLS to have failed to score in each 15-minute interval. In other words, the only entry in the 114-square league-wide scoring interval chart with a zero is the Timbers’ 16-30 minute entry.
And then there’s this: The Timbers 1.70 goals-against average is tied for 15th in MLS. But that really doesn’t tell the story, because the Timbers only allow 1.38 goals per game on the road, which is stingy enough for a very respectable 5th in the league. At home, however, the Timbers ship a staggering two goals per game, dead last in MLS and 0.62 goals per game higher than their away average.
Neither of those trends are anywhere near normal, but looking at the two trends together paints a picture.
As a baseline, keep in mind that the Timbers have allowed 28 of their 46 concessions, 60.9 percent, at home. At home in that decisive 16-30 minute interval, the Timbers have leaked 10 goals—the most of any fifteen-minute interval at Providence Park and 35.7 percent of all the goals they’ve allowed on Morrison Street. On the road, however, the Timbers have only conceded three of 18 goals in the 16-30 minute interval—the 3rd least of the six quarter-hour intervals and only 16.7 percent of all road concessions. Thus, of the 13 goals the Timbers have allowed during this horrible stretch of the ninety, 10 of them, or 76.9 percent, have been at home. Keeping our baseline number of 60.9 percent of goals being conceded at home in mind, the 76.9 percent of 16-to-30-minute goals conceded in the friendly confines demonstrates that, even relative to their more generalized home foibles, the Timbers are significantly worse during this period at home than they are on the road.
But why? That’s the $64,000 question.
Caleb Porter was asked about the disparity between their home and road form in an interview on Stumptown Footy’s Soccer Made in Portland last week.[1] His answer to that question was three-fold. For one, Porter mentioned that the additional emotion provided by the crowd can make the team overeager to attack. Porter’s related second point was that, as a function of having one of the best atmospheres in the league, the are Timbers often on the receiving end of opponents’ best shot at Providence Park.
But while there may be truth to these two points, they don’t explain the Timbers dramatic drop in home form from 2013 to 2014. In 2013, with the same energetic home crowd and the same fired-up opponents, the Timbers conceded 11 goals all season. That’s just one more than the Timbers have conceded between the 16th and 30th minutes of home games thus far in 2014.
Porter’s third point—and, if we’re being fair, his primary point—was that at home the Timbers have often been too aggressive early in games, resulting in the team frequently getting caught once the initial surge subsides. Here, Porter was explicitly discussing the intersection of the two twilight zone trends discussed above.
Indeed, the Timbers have scored seven times while only conceding twice in the opening fifteen minutes of home matches in 2014. This net of five goals in the Timbers’ favor turns around awfully quickly, however, when it’s blitzed by a minus-ten goal difference in the next interval.
While in 2013 the Timbers also disproportionately conceded goals between the 16th and 30th minute—five of the 11 home goals were conceded were during that period–only two such concessions came after March 9th. Notably, whereas the Timbers have already scored seven goals in the opening fifteen minutes of home matches in 2014, Portland only cut three slices off the log in the opening spell of games at Jeld-Wen Field in 2013.
Thus, there is statistical support for the notion that the more aggressive the Timbers are early in games, the more vulnerable they are once their opponent has weathered the initial storm. In 2014, the Timbers have been too aggressive in the early stages at Providence Park and the consequence has been the Timbers being crushed in the middle section of the first half. Hence Operation Come from Behind.
Despite Porter making these comments on Soccer Made in Portland last week, perhaps the best example of his point came on Sunday against San Jose. After the Timbers bludgeoned the Earthquakes by squeezing off ten shots in the first 20 minutes, San Jose capitalized on the ants in the Timbers’ pants by opening the scoring—as so many Timbers opponents do—against the run of play in the 21st minute. The scent of blood in the water lured the Timbers midfield and fullbacks forward, exposing a rickety backline to the counter of Salinas and Wondolowski.
The names may change, but the trend doesn’t.
Those ants in the Timbers’ pants, then, explain both the team’s habit of conceding between the 16th and 30th minutes and their surprisingly mediocre home form. When at home, the Timbers are more aggressive and thus more susceptible to being rope-a-doped. All too often this results in Operation Come from Behind being a-go after the Timbers fly out of the blocks only to be caught on the first turn. When away, however, Port(er)land is more pragmatic, and their more patient game management yields fewer goals against the run of play and more consistent results.
The same aggression that has caused the Timbers to concede a forest of goals between the 16th and 30th minute, then, has deflated Portland’s Providence Park fortunes relative to their away success.
Those two bizarre trends of 2014? They’re related. And fixable.
Onward, Rose City.
[1] Although I recommend listening to the whole interview if you haven’t already, this portion coincidentally begins at 25:00 of the podcast.
