—by Chris Rifer

After two impressive performances which translated to two less than fulfilling results, the Portland Timbers head on the road to Seattle with questions surrounding the feasibility of winning with their current tactics.

While the Timbers’ flood of the midfield has resulted in impressive possession statistics, and substantially limited the number of shots allowed, it has resulted in the backline being exposed on numerous occasions.

In light of the frequent concessions and the rehabilitation of Jack Jewsbury’s hamstring, the Timbers may be looking at a change of tactics in Seattle, if not in the coming weeks.

During the first week of practice, Caleb Porter often lined the Timbers’ presumptive starters up in a diamond midfield formation during short-sided games, with Jewsbury in the first choice team.  This lasted five minutes into the first preseason game against Colorado, when Jewsbury pulled his hamstring.

And so the experimentation began.  The result was a 4-2-3-1 with a gaggle of Timbers in the central midfield.  Kalif Alhassan, who at times last year looked a breath away from sending his career into the wilderness, stepped in to give the Timbers an intriguing attacking look in the 4-2-3-1.

Intrigue turned to concern, however, after the Timbers conceded nine goals in their first four first team games at Jeld-Wen Field in 2013.

Conceding goals at that rate at home is troublesome.  Conceding goals at that rate on the road is fatal.

The reality is, regardless of how many players the Timbers pack into the midfield, they’re not going to hold 65% of the ball and limit opponents to 10 shots on the road with any consistency.  A change in tactics, then, if perhaps advisable at home, is an absolute necessity if the Timbers want to have a prayer on the road.

We return to Porter’s first-choice diamond 4-4-2, then.  Traditionally, a 4-2-3-1 will be wider up top than a diamond 4-4-2, as it typically features two traditional wings in the higher midfield level.  Portland’s 4-2-3-1, however, was very narrow, as all three players in the advanced level like to play centrally.

The result was the Timbers relied on their fullbacks to provide width in the offense and as the only real flank defense.  Because the fullbacks played so high in the offense, they were often caught upfield.  In that instance, Diego Chara and Will Johnson were often faced a difficult choice of either covering the flank and opening up the middle, or holding their position and opening up the wide areas.  While the correct choice was probably to cover the flank more often than they did, doing so wasn’t without risk.

While the diamond 4-4-2, as the Timbers would play it, is no wider offensively, it provides a little bit more cover for the fullbacks when they do venture forward to provide width.  With Jack Jewsbury back to health, he’s likely to feature if Portland goes to the more traditional look, as Ben Zemanski has struggled when asked to play inside.  With Chara and Johnson playing narrow wings, Jack can sit in the hole and play a more defensive role.  Will and Diego will play a little bit wider than in the 4-2-3-1, which will increase their defensive range slightly closer to the touchline.

More importantly, however, the change would remove the tough decision for Chara and Johnson.  Knowing Jewsbury is there to cover the middle, Chara and Johnson can rest assured the middle is covered if they look up to see Michael Harrington or Ryan Miller upfield.

In this way, even though a diamond 4-4-2 typically puts more pressure on fullbacks to cover ground, it may not for the Timbers considering the narrowness of their 4-2-3-1.  To the contrary, it may actually relieve some of that pressure by freeing up Johnson and Chara to cover.

Nonetheless, considering the vulnerability thus far, Porter is likely to hold the fullbacks – or at least one of them at a time – farther back on Saturday.[1]  The unavoidable result is the loss of some width in the attack.  That, though, is the price you pay for defensive cover.

Expect the Timbers, however, to try to generate width in creative ways.  In his role as second striker, Darlington Nagbe will have license to wander wherever he feels, including out wide if the situation calls for it.  We’ve seen Darlington do this from time to time over the past couple weeks, often combining well with Michael Harrington in such a role.

Ryan Johnson has also shown the capacity and willingness to float wide on the left side, something the Timbers could benefit from considering he is one of the few roster players that can hit a cross with his left foot.  Don’t be surprised, then, if the Timbers mix up their front a little bit, and send Nagbe and Valeri into the box to receive Johnson crosses once in a while.

The diamond 4-4-2, however, does somewhat mitigate the Timbers flood of the center of midfield, however.  Instead of five players in the middle, Portland will most often feature four – Chara, Will Johnson, Valeri, and Nagbe.  While that combination certainly wouldn’t show the dynamism of the past several weeks, its fluidity and quick passing may be enough to keep the Sounders’ defense on its toes, occupy a good amount of Ozzie Alonso’s energy, and – ideally – force the Sounders’ wings inside to defend.  If the Timbers’ midfield can accomplish those three things, and especially the last, they may be able to escape the Clink with a result.

If not, however, a struggling Timbers backline may be tested early and often.  That, considering how frequently Portland has been giving up goals on opponents’ chances, could lead to a very, very long night.

Onward, Rose City!

For Immediate Release:

On Wednesday, March 13 Portland City Commissioner Dan Saltzman will host the Timbers Army fan group at Portland City Council’s regularly scheduled meeting. The Timbers Army of the Portland Timbers Major League Soccer team, incorporated as the 107ist Independent Supporters’ Trust, is the most rabid and community involved fan club in Major League Soccer. In 2012 the 107ist and its members donated over $62,000 dollars and over 5,000 volunteer hours to charities and community activities throughout the region.

Board President Scott Van Swearingen expressed his excitement for the upcoming 2013 season: “I am extremely proud of the unprecedented level of support that the Timbers Army has provided the Portland Timbers in their successful partnership with the City of Portland. I look forward to the Timbers Army raising our level of support for both the Portland Timbers and the City of Portland in the coming season.”

The creation of Jeld-Wen Field, that brought the Timbers Major League Soccer team to Portland, was created through a partnership agreement between the City of Portland and the privately-owned Peregrine Sports LLC. During each of its first two seasons as a MLS stadium, the user fee revenue from Jeld Wen Field events has exceeded the forecast amount in the partnership agreement. Last year’s user fees generated over $750,000 for the City of Portland. This is $120,000 over the baseline minimum in the partnership.

City Commissioner Dan Saltzman stated: “Seeing our partnership agreement so successful is due in no small part to the dedicated fans and volunteers of the Timbers Army. And now with the exciting addition of the National Women’s Soccer League team, the Portland Thorns Football Club, it’s only getting better.”

Please join the 107ist and its members at 9:30am on Wednesday, March 13th at Portland City Hall (1221 SW 4th Ave.) for this opportunity to celebrate all we do for our community.

Contact:

107ist Board Vice President:

Jeremy Wright: 503-358-0694

Commissioner Dan Saltzman’s Chief of Staff:

Brendan Finn: 503-823-4151

...and why you should.

—by Andrew Brawley

To be honest, I got more pressing matters. I got a kid moving into my house soon, and apparently they are like the worst roommates ever. The crying, and pooping, and eating, and Jebus knows what else. Let's just say this nursery ain't gonna put itself together. Plus, there's always that slight chance I could return from Seattle with some weird virus, and next thing I know, my first-born grows up a Sounders fan. Some battles are just more noble than others.

But that really is all it boils down to. Otherwise, I'd be leading the charge.

(Feel free to beat me with the comment stick down below and relentlessly ask me why I hate the Timbers.)

We've all heard about the shenanigans that went down last year. I've been told that steps have been taken to ensure both of this year's Seattle Away trips go down with as little static as possible.

The Timbers will need us there en masse, and we can't let them down. This is going to be one epic battle, and the Sounders will be playing their 4th match in 14 days. Just because Seattle managed to expend a ton of energy beating a 10-man 'B'-squad from Mexico to advance in CCL play doesn't we shouldn't kick them while they're down for our derby match.

However, if you're still a bit concerned for your well being and afraid of getting caught in a pinch, follow these important steps:

1. Have some emergency face paint ready at all times. If you get cornered, slap some on real quick. It doesn't have to look good (seriously), just make sure it's on your entire face. Use words like "woop woop" and "neden" and "hellz yeah bitch!" and you should escape without harm.

2. Name-drop local bands like Grammatrain and Candlebox. For instance: "oh my Gosh that new Grammatrain album is gonna be so great, and I heard Drew Carey is gonna help them make another video, too! Jeepers!"

3. When referring to the invention of soccer (not fútbol), remember the numbers 2-0-0-9.

4. If approached by an ECS capo, steal the nearest microphone and promptly hand it over to them. It's the best diversion out there.

Seattle Away veterans, please feel free to list your suggestions for avoiding a scrum at the CLink.

#GetOnTheBus

 

This is an opinion piece and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the 107ist or the TA.

—by Chris Rifer

Everybody knew the Portland Timbers were going to control possession and try to pass its way through the Montreal defense on Saturday night.  And everybody also knew the Impact were going to sit back, absorb the pressure, and look to break out and hit the Timbers on the break.

That’s exactly what happened, and the result was a 2-1 Montreal win that easily could have been more lopsided.

Montreal should have opened the scoring in the eighth minute, when Marco Di Vaio set up a wide-open Felipe at the top of the box, only to have the Brazilian roll his shot just wide of the far post.

The Timbers almost gifted Montreal again three minutes later after Ryan Miller and Andrew Jean-Baptiste thought it more important to hold down their spot on the turf than mark Di Vaio.  Not surprisingly, Di Vaio got a free head to a cross from the right wing only to be kept out by a magnificently reacting Donovan Ricketts.

Although they held plenty of possession in the attacking half, Portland didn’t create a real chance until the 27^th minute, when Ryan Johnson spun through the defense on the left side of the box, but rather than center to Darlington Nagbe, Johnson went at goal himself and was easily denied from a tight angle by Troy Perkins.

Montreal broke through three minutes later.  After the flat-footed Timbers failed to clear a modest Andrea Pisanu set piece and the ball popped up in the box, Hassoun Camara knocked it past a helpless Ricketts with an impressive overhead volley.

The Timbers initially struggled to respond to the goal before eventually settling back into their pattern of possession and, ultimately, frustration.  It was the referee, however, that likely sent Timbers PR staff scrambling to make sure Merritt Paulson’s phone was secured in the 40^th minute, when Edvin Jurisevic wrongfully denied the Timbers a penalty after Sanna Nyassi shoved a free-running Ryan Miller from behind in the box.[1]  Some more positive play from the Timbers before halftime, however, couldn’t find an equalizer.

Coming out of the break, Montreal reset the parking break in front of goal— often putting eight blue shirts in and around the box.  The result for Portland was plenty of possession, but tremendous difficulty making the final pass into a stuffed box.

The first real chance of the half came for Portland in the 57^th minute, when Michael Harrington found some space on the left wing and sent a pretty bending ball toward Ryan Johnson at the far post, but Perkins arrived just in time to punch away.

Montreal gave Portland a mountain to climb three minutes later, however, when, after a botched interchange between Will Johnson and Ben Zemanski, Montreal gained possession in the midfield.  Andres Romero slipped behind Will Johnson on the Timbers’ left flank and received a through ball, pulling Mikael Silvestre into a wider space where his defensing has been inconsistent.  After Romero beat Silvestre with a low cross, Felipe sat all alone at the near post for the cakewalk finish.

It was Romero again that almost put the game away in the 64^th minute when he easily beat a meek Timbers offside trap, but Michael Harrington cleared his Ricketts-beating chip at the face of goal to preserve the two-goal deficit.

Apparently frustrated by the defensive foibles, Andrew Jean-Baptiste tried to pull the Timbers back into the game two minutes later.  Valeri found AJB at the top of the box after a corner was initially cleared, and after a couple nice touches between he and Zemanski, the center back hit a low shot at goal, but Perkins saved to his right.

In the 80^th minute, Portland would finally pull a goal back.  After Diego Chara switched to Zemanski on the right wing, the newcomer sent a quick cross into the far post that fell perfectly for Ryan Johnson to finish.

Although back in business, the Timbers defense would threaten once more to make any kind of result unattainable.  After Romero breezed by Zemanski and got to the byline in the 87^th minute, Donovan Ricketts fell to take the ball off his foot.  The ball fell for Collen Warner, however, whose diving shot was saved by an outstretched, supine Ricketts.

From there, however, it was all about the Timbers’ desperate attempt to scratch out a draw.  Despite finding a few looks, the Timbers couldn’t find anything dangerous enough to pull level and scratch out an improbable point.

Match Observations

The Timbers were lucky to get away with a 2-1 loss.  Despite outshooting Montreal 19-9, holding 63% of the ball, and completing 566 passes, it was the Impact who had six of the eight truly threatening chances in the match.  These facts extend a trend for the Timbers at home early this season, and highlight how susceptible Portland is to having teams come into Jeld-Wen, park the bus, and leave with a result delivered by counterattacks and Timbers’ defensive mistakes.

That Montreal was well suited to sit behind the ball and counterattack does not make their strategy unviable for other teams to emulate.  As I discussed in The Morrison Report last week, the Timbers’ tactics make them especially susceptible to teams taking advantage of the considerable space in behind the Timbers’ very, very high fullbacks.  Look back at the second concession.  Although Johnson’s giveaway certainly wasn’t ideal, the Timbers were in real trouble because a moment before Michael Harrington had made a very premature, very aggressive run forward.  Johnson failed to recognize the vulnerability and stayed in his central midfield defensive position, allowing Romero to run behind him into the space where Harrington would normally be.  The result was Silvestre had to come out to try to cut off the cross, leaving nobody in front of goal to pick up a near post runner.

While Montreal may be better than most at lying deep and counterattacking, their tactics on Saturday weren’t rocket science.  Given the Timbers’ defensive vulnerability, it is reasonable to be concerned that other teams could similarly sit back, knowing the Timbers’ defense will yield a handful of quality chances.

Almost any MLS team, at this point, has every reason right now to think that they can come into Jeld-Wen, play conservatively, get one or two goals out of it, and leave with at least a point.  After all, including competitive first team preseason games, three of the last four teams to come into Jeld-Wen have scored multiple goals despite being significantly out-shot and out-possessed.  It’s far from nonsense to think that other teams could employ a Montreal-like gameplan to some measure of success in Portland.

Timbers Grades

Donovan Ricketts, 7 Boy, did the big fella ever show his old team!  Joking aside, Ricketts was fantastic, making not one, but two tremendous saves.  He still creates some nervous moments, but on Saturday they all turned out to be harmless.

Ryan Miller, 3 Ineffective in the attack and poor in defense.  What was he doing on that free Di Vaio header?  Clearly neither covering it nor warning AJB of the danger.

Andrew Jean-Baptiste, 5 Had some really nice moments of defending, but also was caught sleeping once or twice—including as noted above.

Mikael Silvestre, 4 Had a much better outing than against New York, but still had his perimeter defending exposed on the second concession.  Wasn’t entirely his fault, as his fullback was hanging out around midfield and nobody was covering, but he’s not exactly cleaning up others’ mistakes.

Michael Harrington, 3 Is being put in a tough spot tactically, as its clear Porter has told him and Miller to play very high.  But still, he needs to be a little bit more discerning about when he makes a run forward, or he’ll continue to hang his defensive partners out to dry.

Diego Chara, 6.5 Completed over 90% of his 96 passes, won tackles, and recoveries.  Typical day at the office for Diego Chara.

Will Johnson, 4 Rough day from Will.  Although he was his typical, solid self in the midfield, he fell asleep a little bit on the second concession and failed to cover for the absent Harrington on the left flank on the second concession.

Kalif Alhassan, 4.5 My initial thought was this was a pretty poor performance from Kalif, but as I looked back my view softened a little bit.  He had a couple wayward touches, and, as usual, didn’t contribute much defensively, but on the whole wasn’t awful—if a little more anonymous than we’ve seen him in his last few outings.

Diego Valeri, 6 This has more to do with Montreal than anything, but Valeri really had nowhere to go much of the night.  Always looking to make the final pass, Valeri more often than not looked up to see a wall of blue shirts in front of him.  Still the most dangerous Timber on the field, though.

Darlington Nagbe, 6 He didn’t make it on the scoresheet, but Nagbe had some periods of good work on the left side with Michael Harrington, and also contributed some handy defensive work.

Ryan Johnson, 5.5 A tough game until the 80^th minute.  Scoring really helps a forward’s grade.

Ben Zemanski, 5 Had some absolutely brutal moments,[2] but his cross to Johnson was high, high quality.

Jose Valencia, 5 Had a little bit of a quiet outing on Saturday.  He hits a little bit better ball on that shot in stoppage, however, and his grade would have skyrocketed.

Rodney Wallace, INC. Short, unspectacular spell for Rod.

Preseason Prediction: Timbers 2, Impact 1.  Johnson, Nagbe.

Actual Result: Impact 2, Timbers 1.  Johnson.

Onward, Rose City!

—By Garrett Dittfurth

What are we here for? We love our team, our town, our culture and everything about that. We are here to support our boys night in and night out despite their record. We were here in 2006 when Chris Agnello ruined everything. We were there in 2008 supporting when our overachieving club of 2007 shat the bed and finished dead last. We celebrated in 2009 when we won the regular season and crashed out of the playoffs. We underachieved in 2010 and we were still there. We changed the game in 2011 when we went to MLS and took everything to a new level. You don't need me to tell you that. Just look at quotes from every person affiliated with MLS on any level to confirm that.

There is nothing personal involved here. It's just something that needs to be said. This isn't Manchester United. This town will never be reveling in championship after championship as we're a small market and L.A. and N.Y.C. will always blow a ton of cash on players. That's not us. We're as close to St. Pauli in the U.S. as anyone is going to get. We get that and understand it. What we also get is passion for our club. What we connect with is players that understand that same passion. Troy Perkins got it and we also are well aware of how he was treated on his way out and want him to understand we appreciated him. I hate to make another sport reference but because there is a lack of other professional clubs here I have to do it. There is a reason every Blazers player from the 80s and 90s are idolized here. It is because of how involved they were personally. They made a connection here with the fans and many of them still live here despite being traded off or finishing their careers elsewhere.

Don't get me wrong. I understand soccer is a business and players are traded or sold and it happens. It's part of the game. What I want to be clear about is that players come and go but that connection between fans and players is really what is valued. We may not win a cup every year but the player who goes out of their way to make it clear how much they care will always be valued by every supporter. Especially here.

Byron Alvarez and Hugo Alcaraz-Cuellar don't have a mural of them painted on the side of a building at a patio near the field because they were just some dudes collecting a paycheck. If you want to play here and collect a paycheck I guess that's cool. You'd better produce because I myself care about more things than collecting a paycheck. Whenever Scot Thompson shows up on the field he's going to get a big S-C-O-T Scot with One T chant because he was more than collecting a paycheck. Cameron Knowles earned his 6-6-6 chant for how he left his heart on the field and in our hearts. Ian Joy was here for one year and I can still sing his chant word for word as many others can do because he was the charismatic captain.

Those players got it. David Horst gets it. It may look like I am picking on him because he posted something but I'm not. He is a player that I know gets it. I'm just trying to make it clear why Troy Perkins got chanted off the field tonight. Remember the name on the front and they'll remember the name on the back. Troy was someone that did just that.

It's as simple as that. Remember the name on the front and we'll remember the name on the back. 90 minutes we supported our team with everything. At the end Perkins got clapped and chanted off because he remembered the name on the front when he was here. We'll remember the name on his back.

*My opinion is my opinion and does not reflect the 107ist board or anything of the sort*

You're the person who really likes going to games but doesn't have a season ticket or you're looking to grab a couple extras for friends. Maybe you're looking to sell an extra ticket because you're friend can't go. Hopefully this will be a good guide on how to do that without being scalped.

1. Don't go to a scalper. They are leeches. Ignore them both online and at the stadium.

2. Before the day of game check the Timbers Ticket Exchange page on Facebook. It is moderated and anyone trying to sell a ticket for over face value gets the boot. We know everyone doesn't have Facebook but this is really the only method out there that offers some way to moderate it so that fans aren't scalping to fans. Spread the love folks. So if you're looking to buy or looking to sell before the game that's the easiest place to go.

3. On the day of the game check out the Fanladen located just a block away from the stadium at 1633 SW Alder St. It is staffed by friendly volunteers who will try to connect those looking to sell a ticket with someone looking to buy a ticket. The Fanladen opens about 3 hours prior to the match and closes about an hour before the match so the volunteers can get to their seats in the stadium too.

4. Stop by the No Pity Van at Rack Attack just across the street from the stadium at 1737 SW Morrison. The No Pity Van accepts ticket donations only and sells them for face value with the proceeds going into the tifo fund (how we pay for those giant banners). Did you also know Rack Attack is awesome and also gives 107ist members 20% off MSRP on all racks and rack systems, excluding Sportrack products? Well now you do.

5. Do not feed the scalpers!

Thursday April 4; 7:00 pm

Hollywood Theatre, 4122 NE Sandy Blvd

$12 in advance; $15 at the door

Join Operation Pitch Invasion, the 107 Independent Supporters Trust and 5 Minutes to Kickoff for an evening celebrating Soccer City USA's past and creating Soccer City USA's future.

To help build Bless Field in the New Columbia community, a field on which a future Timbers or Thorns (!) star will be born, we'll look back at the roots of major league soccer in Portland with some of the legends who played here, men who filled the stadium with fans and stayed on to help turn those fans into a true community of soccer players and supporters.

Come see highlights of the Timbers playing against Pele and his Cosmos in Portland in 1976; the Timbers playing the Chicago Sting at Wrigley Field in 1982; and, in an extended cut, the Timbers playing the Seattle Sounders in a playoff semifinal before a record crowd in Portland in 1975.

Commenting throughout the evening will be the players on the screen themselves, among them Willie Anderson, Bernie Fagan, Roger Goldingay, Mick Hoban, Bill Irwin, and Jimmy Kelly, along with “5MTKO” hosts Bob Kellett and Steven Lenhart.

Thanks to the Hollywood Theatre's generosity, every cent of admission goes directly toward building Bless Field at New Columbia.

Bless Field, scheduled to open later this year, will be an all-weather turf field serving kids from 22 countries who speak 11 languages -- plus, of course, the international language of soccer.

With the organizational support of the Regence Boys and Girls Club (immediately adjacent to the field) and instructional guidance from the Timbers Academy, 107ist volunteer coaches and mentors will institute a program of instruction and organized play on Bless Field (named for the late Timbers Army stalwart General Timber Howie Bless). The field will also support programming by AC Portland in concert with Rosa Parks Elementary School (also adjacent).

And someday -- not far long from now, either -- one of those kids who learns to play the game at Bless Field will score a meaningful goal for the Timbers or Thorns (!) at JeldWen Field, and the connection of Team-Town-Timbers Army will be complete.

Efforts are now underway to raise the approximately $200,000 needed to see the project through, and this event marks the launch of that fundraising drive. The Portland Timbers and 107ist are already committed to significant contributions to the campaign, but you can take part, too, by attending this evening.

“Beating Seattle Never Gets Old” promises to be one of those epic Soccer City USA events that you’ll brag about attending years from now. Only 350 tickets are available, so get yours now.

—by Andrew Brawley

Seriously.

Don't steal flags from the North End.

It's stealing.

—by Chris Rifer

Earlier today, Kelly McLain, my esteemed counterpart at NASN Portland, wrote an articulate and impassioned defense of the Timbers defense.  Although I strongly encourage you to give Kelly’s column a full read, his working thesis is essentially that the Timbers’ concessions are not yet cause for great alarm due to their flukey, once-in-a-blue-moon-mistake, nature.

Kelly is certainly correct that it would be imprudent to write the book on a defense one match into a 34-game season.  Nonetheless, I respectfully dissent from his conclusion that it is too soon to harbor concerns about Portland’s defense.

In the three serious first team games in 2013 – San Jose, AIK, and New York – the Timbers have conceded seven goals on 31 shots.  Hidden within this statistic is both good news and bad news.

Before we get to the good and bad news, keep this one caveat in mind: we’re dealing with a very small sample size with the 2013 Timbers right now.  Thus, it is likely these numbers will change – and perhaps normalize – as the Timbers add to the sample.  The point of this column, however is not undercut by this, as the only point I make here is that the Timbers’ current performance must improve dramatically if they want to compete for a spot in the playoffs.  My thesis, then, is this: If the Timbers want to compete, their defense must improve substantially.  That, by itself, is cause for concern.

Back to the news, starting with the good news.  Through these first three games, the Timbers are conceding 10.33 shots per game.  This is remarkable defensive efficiency.[1] In 2012, the team with the fewest shots in the league – Vancouver – averaged 10.44 shots per game.[2]  The team with the most shots, Sporting K.C., averaged 15.94.  The median Seattle Sounders averaged 12.91.[3]

From this, we can infer that the 10.33 shots per game conceded by Portland would be at or near the top of MLS if extended over the course of a season.

The bad news, however, is very troubling.  The Timbers have conceded goals on 22.58% of the shots they have allowed.  That is astronomically high.  In 2012, the team with the best shooting percentage (the percentage of shots that resulted in goals - which I will refer to as “offensive efficiency”) was New York with 14.47%; substantially lower than the Timbers’ 22.58% defensive inefficiency rating right now.   The median offensive efficiency was Chicago at a round 10%, with the mean just slightly higher at 10.27%.[4]  The Timbers’ defensive inefficiency rating, if you will, is more than 8% higher than the highest offensive efficiency rate in 2012, and more than double the mean and median offensive efficiency rates.[5]

Here’s why this is really cause for concern.  While the statistical correlation between the number of shots taken and the number of goals scored in 2012 was somewhat weaker than I thought it would be, the relationship between offensive efficiency and goals scored was very strong.  The top seven teams in goals scored were also the top seven teams – albeit in a slightly different order – in offensive efficiency.  If the defensive corollary holds true, and there is a strong relationship between defensive inefficiency and goals conceded – something that is a statistical likelihood, though not a certainty – it becomes clear the Timbers defense must improve significantly or the season’s success is in serious peril.

This by itself, however, does not altogether disprove Kelly’s thesis – that the Timbers’ concessions may be more fluke than trend.  What’s troubling, though, is that the Timbers’ manner of concession is consistent with what would be expected given their tactics.

Portland’s 4-2-3-1 plays a very narrow, very high midfield.  All five players in the middle levels of the Timbers’ formation – Diego Chara, Will Johnson, Darlington Nagbe, Kalif Alhassan, and Diego Valeri – play very centrally.  The width in the Timbers’ offense comes from fullbacks Michael Harrington and Ryan Miller, who both are pulled very high.

The theory behind this is essentially to force the Timbers’ opponents to devote massive numbers to the middle of the field.  In doing so, the opponents won’t be able to exploit the space on the Timbers’ flanks because all of their wide attacking players will have been sucked into a losing battle in the middle.

We saw this for extended periods against the Red Bulls.  From about the 30-minute mark on, the Red Bulls “offense” was essentially reduced to thumping long balls over the top to a stranded Thierry Henry.  Even though there were acres in which to run on the outside of Portland’s defense, New York couldn’t get there because the Timbers had pulled all of the Red Bulls’ wings inside.

This largely explains why the Timbers have conceded so few shots.  Because Portland’s opponents get mired in a central midfield battle, and because the Timbers are good at holding the ball for extended periods, the opponents’ opportunities to build offense and put together an organized attack are limited.

The problem, however, is that this is bound to break down on the Timbers a handful of times per game.  A pass is given away in the midfield.  An opposing fullback sends forward a good long ball.  If an opposing attacking player can get into that space on the flank, the defense is unlocked, essentially leaving two center backs to cover the width of the field.

This, then, is consistent with the Timbers tremendous shots allowed numbers, but very, very poor defensive inefficiency rate.  Simply put, Portland’s tactics limit the number of opportunities opponents have, but when an opportunity inevitably comes along, they are significantly more lethal than the average chance.

It is too simple, then, to explain the Timbers’ defensive struggles as coincidence.  New York’s second goal is the perfect anecdote.  Yes, it was proximately caused by a mistake when Mikael Silvestre whiffed in his attempt to cut out Kosuke Kimura’s long ball forward.  But that sort of mistake is made more likely by Portland’s tactics, which force central defenders to defend wide spaces they aren’t necessarily accustomed or well suited to defending.  Add in a central defense that appears to be mistake-prone under the best of circumstances,[6] and you have a perfect storm of defensive exploitation.

In sum, it is no coincidence that the Timbers first team has played three home games, crushed all three teams in the eyeball test, and yet failed to come away with a single maximal result.  The defense just hasn’t been good enough at putting out the inevitable fires to let the offense win games for them.

There is still plenty that can change.  The return of David Horst or Hanyer Mosquera could alleviate some of the struggles.  The improving health of Jack Jewsbury could permit the Timbers to go to a narrow a diamond 4-4-2, which would give the flanks a little bit more cover because Chara and Johnson could play a little bit wider.

So, I agree with Kelly that it is too soon to say that the poor defense will end the Timbers’ season.  But serious concern about the defense is perfectly justified at this point.  If the Timbers’ defense can’t start putting out more of these inevitable fires, the current short trend of dominant play and disappointing results will likely continue.

That is why the state of the Timbers’ defense is the single most important issue facing the team right now.

Onward, Rose City!

—by Chris Rifer

In the postgame press conference, Caleb Porter was asked if his defense was good enough to consistently earn three points.  His answer was “Yes. Yes.”  Whether he’s right or not will go a long way toward determining where the Timbers finish this season.

The defense was breathtakingly bad in the first half.

The comedy of errors began in the ninth minute.  After Will Johnson cleared a free kick from close in on the Red Bulls’ right wing, New York sent the ball back into the box, where it found the feet of Fabian Espindola.  The debutante was wrestled off the ball, but as Mikael Silvestre tapped back to Donovan Ricketts, the Jamaican bobbled the back pass, allowing Espindola to fire into an open net.

Just as they did against San Jose two weeks earlier, however, the Timbers came right back.  Silvestre almost found the equalizer a minute after the concession when a corner kick bounced around the box and found his foot, but his low shot bent just wide of the post.

The Red Bulls wouldn’t be so fortunate in the 14^th minute.  After Darlington Nagbe and Will Johnson worked the ball to Kalif Alhassan at the top of the box, the Ghanaian found an onrushing Diego Valeri on the left side of the box.  Valeri juggled magnificently past the Red Bulls defense, and slotted into the far post with the outside of his right foot.

The Timbers struggled to get in rhythm, however, and found themselves on the bad end of another embarrassing mishap again in the 24^th minute.  After Kosuke Kimura sent a barely hopeful long ball forward on the Red Bulls right wing, Silvestre took a swing and miss at the vertical pass.  As a result, it fell to Espindola with a one on one against Ricketts, who couldn’t muster the heroics to keep the scoreline even.

A bad situation got worse four minutes later, as Johnson again cleared a corner only to have it fall for Ruben Bover Izquierdo.  Bover found Heath Pearce on the byline, who sent the ball all the way across the face of goal where Jamison Olave easily tapped home.

The Timbers began to settle into their offense from there, and dominated the ball for much of the rest of the half, but couldn’t pull one back before the break.

Portland came out firing in the second half, however.  In the 47^th minute, Valeri got out on the break and found Darlington Nagbe in the middle of the field.  Nagbe found Ryan Johnson, who had beat Kimura on the left side of the box, but Johnson’s mouth-watering look at goal resulted only in a shot soaring over the bar.

In the 55^th minute, the Timbers continued their absurd tradition of being wrongfully denied penalties.  An out-swinging Valeri corner found the feet of Andrew Jean-Baptiste, but AJB’s stab was cleared after it was substantially hindered when Pearce took him down wrestling-style from behind.

The Valeri-Nagbe-Alhassan combination paid off again a minute later, however.  After Michael Harrington and Nagbe worked the ball centrally for Alhassan, he again found Valeri in the middle of the loose Red Bulls defense.  No New Yorker came to pick him up, so Valeri took a crack form the top of the box, but Luis Robles parried away.  Nagbe was right there to clean up, however, as he cued the bouncing rebound into the net.

In the 65^th minute Thierry Henry almost put an early end to the drama when he got loose off of a weak Jean-Baptiste clearance, but Ricketts was there this time to palm away and out of danger.

After having their way with New York in the second half, the Timbers finally drew level in the 83^rd minute.  Rodney Wallace did well to win a ball, and Nagbe took possession and ran into the dull, gapped teeth of the Red Bulls defense.  After Robles had to palm away Nagbe’s swerving shot, Jose Valencia gathered on the byline and sent a hard cross across the face of goal.  Trencito’s Will Johnson-bound cross was intercepted by Olave, but the Colombian could clear only as far as the back of the net.

From there, Ryan Johnson had two wonderful chances to send the Timbers home with three points, but couldn’t quite convert either.  In the 90^th minute Valeri gathered the ball at the top of the box and beautifully lobbed it to Johnson on the left side.  Johnson one-timed it with his left foot, but Robles made a tremendous save diving to his left to rob Johnson of a sure winner.

In the third minute of stoppage time Johnson almost made himself a legend again.  After Valeri got head to Silvestre’s cross and popped the ball into the air, Johnson, with his back toward goal, bicycled it toward the net, but it sailed just wide of the near post.

The fight back from the Timbers was tremendous, and something the Timbers Army haven’t seen at Jeld-Wen Field for quite some time.

The offense looks like it is going to be one of the best in MLS.  The combination of Diego Valeri, Ryan Johnson, Darlington Nagbe, and Kalif Alhassan is working impossibly well at times.  For the first time, the Timbers appear to have an offense that is both very well designed and coached.

But it won’t be the offense that decides the Timbers’ season.  They’ll score goals in bunches.  To date, however, they’re also conceding them in bunches.  The goals against count the same whether they’re off of discrete mistakes or a result of thorough domination.

Twice, now, in three Timbers first team home games, they’ve dominated the game, scored a trio of goals, but been denied the result the offense deserved by isolated, but serious, defensive mistakes.

The question to Porter, then, was not about “stirring the pot,” as the coach suggested during and after the press conference.  Rather, it is the question that will determine whether the Timbers are a 30 point team or a 50 point team.  In other words, it’s the question that will decide the season.  And, if the prickliness of Porter’s response is any indication, it may also be the question he goes to sleep asking himself.[1]

Timbers Grades

Donovan Ricketts, 3 Not much he could be expected to do on the second concession, but bears some culpability on the first and third.  On the first, while Silvestre didn’t help him by sending him an awkward back pass, Ricketts’s half-effort to bend down and pick it up rather than boot it is mind boggling considering it would have been a handball.  On the third, Ricketts was slow to go to ground, and let a dangerous ball come across his box two yards in front of goal.

Ryan Miller, 4.5 Sort of a quiet night from Miller.  Most of the worst defense was on the left side, but was a little bit off in the attack.

Andrew Jean-Baptiste, 6 Shares a good serving culpability for the third concession, as Olave was his mark and AJB lost him.  Nonetheless, he won a ton of balls on Sunday, and cleaned up a couple Silvestre messes in the first half.

Mikael Silvestre, 2 A disastrous first half that need not be rehashed here.  Brought his grade up a couple points with a solid second half, although he really didn’t have that much to do considering the Timbers’ dominance.

Michael Harrington, 5.5 A decent, if perhaps quiet, outing for Harrington.  Contributed a little bit more to the attack than Miller, and was decent defensively.  The big problems were caused when he got caught upfield a little bit, but that’s more a systemic issue than a Harrington issue.

Diego Chara, 6.5 Whereas Diego Valeri gets all the glamour work, Diego Chara does the dirty work.  Won any number of balls in the midfield—something that is absolutely vital to keeping pressure off the fledgling backline—and completed an absurd 69 of 73 passes.

Will Johnson, 6 Really solid night from Will.  Had a couple threatening shots, but made most of his impact in the midfield where he, along with Chara, put in a hardworking effort.

Darlington Nagbe, 6.5 A tale of two halves for Darlington.  Nagbe was a little bit passive in the first half, but came out in the second half a whole new man.  In some ways, was a little unlucky to only come away with one tally.

Diego Valeri, 8.5 Tremendous.  Simply tremendous.  Was the best player on the field, from his wonderful goal to the constant threat he posed to New York’s backline.

Kalif Alhassan, 6 Had some frustrating moments—as Kalif often has—but was an integral part of two vital moments of interchange between he, Nagbe, and Valeri.  That’s why Kalif has to stay on the field.

Ryan Johnson, 6 Active all night and unlucky not to score.  Robbed of the winner by Robles once, and almost found it in miraculous fashion with his stoppage time bicycle kick.

Sal Zizzo, 5.5 Nothing came directly of it, but Sal added a new element to the attack with his pace and ability on the wing that was missing with Miller.  Obviously not nearly the defender Miller is, but accomplished exactly what he was put on the field to do.

Jose Valencia, 6.5 Gets credit for the equalizer not only because he sent in a tough, dangerous cross, but also for gathering the rebound off of Nagbe’s saved shot.

Rodney Wallace, 6 I about lost it when Rodney came on.  And then he went and won the ball that set up the final goal.  Shows what I know.

Onward, Rose City!