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Supply, this is Demand. Demand, this is Supply.

07/29/2012 10:37 AM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)

—by Andrew Brawley

Anyone claiming to be Timbers Army is well aware that the 2012 Timbers’ season has fallen short of pre-season expectations. For some unknown reason, the team just can’t seem to pin down that magic recipe that will propel the team back into the playoff hunt. So here we are, more than half way through the season, holding up the bottom of the table, tied with Toronto FC, who claimed the record for worst season start in MLS history, and 14 points out of a playoff spot in the Western Conference.

As the approach toward last night’s match vs. Chivas USA rolled on, the first sign of what should be a real concern for the Timbers front office became evident: season ticket holders were selling their tickets and having to compete for buyers.

Folks, the marketplace appears to have spoken.

Since the announcement of MLS adding Portland to its portfolio, the Timbers were the hottest ticket in town. This was no surprise, as such an occurrence is natural for most expansion teams. Add to it that the Timbers already existed in various forms since the 1970’s, and that the Blazers were still feeling the hangover effects of Greg Oden, and you can see why Timbers owner Merritt Paulson had no qualms with making such an investment in our market.

Since opening day, getting tickets to a Timbers game meant you had to: A) be a season ticket holder; B) be at the front of the line at the box office; C) click very fast on Ticketmaster; D) buy from a dirty, filthy scalper, or E) wish illness on somebody who had tickets, forcing them to sell to you.

I hate to say it, but those days might be over.

It’s not like the Timbers have to worry too much about maintaining a sellout streak. Anyone attending Blazers games in the past year can attest that a technical sellout certainly doesn’t mean every seat was filled. It just means that every available ticket was distributed, either via point-of-sale or promotional means. When you consider stadium capacity, minus season tickets and single-match tickets already sold, there’s not much ticket inventory left for the remainder of 2012. I have no doubt the Timbers can maintain their sellout streak this season, and can probably do so with minimal numbers of tickets being given away for promotional purposes.

However, it looks like the varnish has worn off. Last night’s crowd was a bit more typical than what you might see at a “premier” game against Seattle or Los Angeles. With the Timbers recent on-pitch woes, and the opponent not exactly being one of high profile within the league, it’s safe to say that the appeal of last night’s match was far lesser than where it could have been if the Timbers were performing within pre-season expectations.

While the volume of hardcore fans increases with each loss (which are now mounting up rather quickly), there’s one thing that speaks louder than even the most passionate fans: the bottom line.

This weekend saw supply finally catching up with demand. If current trends continue, supply will be greater than demand, which means there may be unsold tickets, which could lead to less revenue generated at concession stands, the team store, etc. Less sets of eyes watching the Jumbotron and staring at above-urinal posters during matches, or watching local TV broadcasts, means unhappy sponsors who paid for advertising and sponsorships with expectations of CPM’s (cost-per-mille, or cost-per-thousand) that are not being met.

Everyone in the Timbers universe (players, fans, front office, media, etc.) wants the Timbers to succeed. But anyone who thinks the Timbers can and/or will succeed without proper business acumen is only fooling themselves. Sports is a fun industry, but it’s still an industry, a.k.a. business. I don’t believe we, as fans, are so naïve to think otherwise. However, there will eventually come a time when ESPN and NBC Sports review the upcoming MLS schedule, look at Portland’s matches, and say “oh, the Timbers Army? Been there, done that. What else do they got there?” Unless there is a product on the pitch worthy of national attention, could we blame them for taking their traveling camera crew elsewhere?

And it’s not like we necessarily want to be the focal point. I bet if you asked any Timbers fan what they would prefer to be the reason for a Timbers match being aired on national TV, every single one of them would prefer that reason to be for the team itself, and not what’s going on in the stands. (Maybe that would be a valid poll for season ticket holders.) The Timbers Army has had quite the run of press coverage this year. We’d happily trade all of it for improved performance on the pitch. We know what we do is fun and interesting because we’re always interested in making it fun. But do we feel that we should be the focal point of the Timbers’ share in the global sports marketplace? ABSOLUTELY NOT!

As a season ticket holder, I began this season prepared to renew for 2013 with an increased price tag. I was expecting that to happen in correlation with a successful season. Even without a playoff spot, a successful season can still be had. Now, I’d be hard-pressed to accept a price hike without some kind of serious discussion and/or argument with my ticket rep.

New talent is expensive. Existing salaries will only go up. Overhead never gets cheaper. Maintaining an existing customer base is far cheaper than creating a new one. This is Business 101. Merritt Paulson is a smart man. He has an MBA from Harvard. He has the drive to win. He has the means to achieve his goals. So I will part with this question:

Can Merritt achieve his goals with the current assets, infrastructure and management in place?

 

This is an opinion piece and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the 107ist or the TA.


Comments

  • 07/16/2016 2:47 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    John Acerbi says:
    Sunday, July 29, 2012 at 11:27 pm

    Something that may be worth noting, according to a front office staffer, the season ticket waiting list now exceeds 7000.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:48 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Garrett Dittfurth says:
    Sunday, July 29, 2012 at 11:40 pm

    7,000 is one number. How many of those people got tickets when they added 1,000 seats to the TA last year but never bothered to remove themselves from that list? I doubt there will be a 97% renewal rate this this year. If it’s 90% that still leaves over 1,500 available season tickets. Then there are all the people on the list who are likely doubtful to actually buy tickets when they get the phone call.
    The Washington Redskins claimed to have 150K on a season ticket holder waiting list. They eliminated 10,000 seats in their new stadium recently. Numbers aren’t always what they seem.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:48 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Joanne Couchman says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 11:10 am

    If they now have tickets then their $50 will have been applied and they won’t be on the list any more.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:48 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Andrew Brawley says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 12:07 am

    John, it’s an enviable position, but let me ask you this. If 7,000 people jump off a sinking ship, would another 7,000 jump onto that ship enthusiastically just because they have $50 already on that ship?
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:49 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Mike Pacific says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 12:31 am

    I plan on it
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:49 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Wesley Robinson says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 12:59 am

    That doesn’t mean if 7000 people drop their season tickets you can just fill them from the waitlist and nothing will change. Plenty of those 7000 people are already attending matches by buying from scalpers or buying single game tickets. Part of the reason that list is so big is the belief that you will always be able to sell them for at or above face value. Once the resale price drops below face, scalpers and occasional attendees will be unlikely to renew, and people such as myself who are worried whether they can afford season tickets will be hesitant to buy in.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:49 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Timber Bill says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 10:43 pm

    There is quite an important difference between paying a refundable $50 deposit to put your name on a list and ponying up hundreds or thousands of dollars every year. It would be very interesting to actually have 7,000 current season ticket holders drop their tickets all at once and see how many of the 7,000 on the list would then buy in.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:50 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    douglas gaines says:
    Sunday, July 29, 2012 at 11:44 pm

    I don’t know where you have been in the last twelve years but this team hasn’t been overly successful. this is a blip in the time frame of being a fan of a team. I believe Merritt will wrap his head around changing the direction of the team into the level that is the MLS (ie,. new GM, new coach and a better distribution of money to real quality players…check below the equator) and we will get better.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:50 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Joanne Couchman says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 11:11 am

    Is there a ‘like’ button on here?? :)
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:51 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Johnny says:
    Sunday, July 29, 2012 at 11:48 pm

    This is a little off topic, but with people giving their tickets to other people and possibly new fans to the timbers I really liked what one of the leaders did at the chivas game, he walked up to the 200 sections and asked the fans if they knew about the new chants and explained to some how the chants went, great idea and it seemed to work!! Keep up the great effort!
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:51 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Zod says:
    Sunday, July 29, 2012 at 11:59 pm

    I have to agree with the author when it comes to a price hike when it comes time to renew. At the top flight level, we have to expect results when it comes to the product on the pitch. If I’m going to be asked to cough up another $200 per season ticket I currently pay for, I need a reason better than “prices go up, not down.” We’re the best supporters in the league, in all of US sports in my opinion. But at some point, we deserve to get a return on what we put into the atmosphere of the match experience.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:51 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Auguste says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 2:16 am

    I’m not entirely sure about one of the central conceits here: Was the ticket market really that different from any week? Certainly I had two potential takers for my ticket (one I sold for reasons other than disinterest, believe me) within 10 minutes of posting it, and that was Friday afternoon. I didn’t see any competing for buyers, but maybe I got lucky/wasn’t paying enough attention.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:52 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    John Hutchison says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 8:06 am

    got 6 texts yesterday from people asking if I wanted their extra tickets….not good.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:52 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    joe oneill says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 8:09 am

    I don’t think MP will raise ticket prices given the on-field performance this season. As a season ticket holder, obviously I’ve been very disappointed with the team this year. However, I have absolutely no plans to give up my season tickets. As discussed, there are 7,000 on the waiting list and I’m well aware that if I were to give up these seats, I’d probably never have an opportunity to get them back.
    I’m more interested in what will happen in the off-season. MP has shown that he’s willing to do what it takes to build a winner, however, I do worry that Gavin has him under his thumb. No way we should have made a second division coach as the GM of this squad, huge mistake!
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:52 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Holly Marsh says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 8:36 am

    Last year, hubby and I were #2016 on the wait list. With the few people on the list who managed to get season tickets, I’m not sure where we are in line now, but we will happily, happily snatch up any TA season tickets if we get the opportunity, regardless of the standings. We have managed to obtain tickets for nearly every home match through pre-sales via Ticketmaster. My husband has a lightning-quick clicky finger. BAM!
    We also took some soccer match virgins to the Reserve match last night, and they are definitely interested in the sport, the team, and the atmosphere, so while fairweather fans are unfortunately dumping their tickets, I think TA members will always have friends or family who can get the opportunity to quell their curiosity and be able to attend a match. Who knows, they may love it (they probably will), and will sign up on the ever-growing season ticket wait list. I would rather have interested parties in the TA, chanting along with everyone, than “fans” not singing, annoyed at flag-waving, or sitting down during the match only because they’re unwilling to let go of their season tickets.
    Hubby and I are used to riding out crappy seasons; we both went to Washington State University, and if you’re a Coug fan, you are the definition of not being a fairweather fan. Andrew is right; Merritt is a smart guy, but he just needs to get the right people in there. I hope he will soon.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:53 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Aaron Sparks says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 3:02 pm

    Just because someone gets annoyed with flag waving during the match doesn’t turn them from a fan into a “fan.” I get annoyed with flag waving because I came to actually watch a match, and when I can’t see a corner kick in the North End, or a shot on goal, I get annoyed at the person(s) holding those flags.
    Save the flag waving for a break in the game, an opposing player down “injured,” a substitution, or when we put one into the back of the net.
    People are definitely getting better about it, but there are still those people waving them at the most inopportune times. Most likely, they’re people there on a friend’s tix and are just oblivious to the fact that people are behind them. The more we remind them, the sooner it will stop.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:53 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Joanne Couchman says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 11:23 am

    I think part of the problem is that there’s no central, organized and place for people to sell their tickets to other fans. Yes there’s a Facebook group, but how many people know about that out of all the people wanting tickets? I saw a lot of tickets available, but I also saw a lot of people looking for tickets. How do we get these people to come together and also prevent scalpers from jumping in on them?
    I’d love to set up some kind of ticket consignment booth right outside the stadium and done with the team’s blessing… maybe in the fenced off area that was the smoking section. People would leave their tickets and get a receipt, they’d have to say what the lowest price they’d take for it was, and then they go back after the match to see if it sold & collect the $. A buyer would have to enter the stadium immediately so couldn’t go back out to re-sell it.
    I dunno, just thinking out loud here. But there must be a better way to get the spare tickets into fans hands.
    As to the point of the post, I think there may be a little bit of interest waning, but I also think it’s due to summer distractions such as weddings, vacations, festivals, etc. The fact that we’re losing (and were playing Chivas) makes it much easier for some people to be distracted.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:53 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Grant says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 12:28 pm

    Another new and disturbing phenomenon: a lot of people left at halftime. I was in 205, a little over halfway up, and I could have laid down with my arms over my head in the second half and no one would have cared. Just within my field of vision, I bet there were 100 open seats after the break that never filled back in.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:54 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Barbara says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 3:19 pm

    If you want to not go anymore because we’re not doing well then please let me help you find the door. The sooner you get out of the way the faster ill get my season tickets. RCTID.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:54 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Sean says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 4:42 pm

    i would love to see the TA merch van having a table where people could sell their TA tickets for face value and sell for face value when showing your 107ist card. This would cut out the scalpers and give yet another reason to join the 107ist. I hate when people suggest other people to do things so I would be willing to host the table.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:54 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Jeremy Wright says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 5:36 pm

    I know it’s funny to say on the TA blog but our ticket sales don’t matter.
    The TA grew by 25% when we lost 17 straight matches in 2006. I suspect the North End will be full for years to come. But our tickets are low revenue generators.
    I’m curious what the re-up is going to be in the West and East stands? Those $1,000-$2,000 season tickets. Those are where the club makes it’s real money.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:55 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Armchair Goat Milking says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 5:53 pm

    This is one ridiculous post. Full of lazy assumptions based upon a very loose analysis of subjective pseudo data and in the end it tells us nothing we didn’t already know. In other words, it’s BS. If you’re going to fart and vomit on your keyboard please keep it in the privacy of your own home.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:55 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Armchair Goat Milking says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 5:55 pm

    Moderated. Wonder if they’ll publish it. Ridiculous blog post.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:55 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Andrew Brawley says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 6:30 pm

    Armchair Goat Milking,
    thank you for your reply. While I normally don’t engage with negative replies, I felt the need to respond to you.
    First off, as author of this post, I get an email each time a comment comes in to my posts. First-time commenters must be moderated to check for spam or anything that could be considered offensive or harassing. I don’t ignore my email account, and I do have an obligation to moderate. Since your reply was neither offensive or harassing, I managed to approve it within seconds, allowing your follow-up comment (which I am currently replying to) to be posted automatically.
    I can appreciate you labeling my assumptions to be lazy. I tried as hard as I could to link to trustworthy articles by respected journalists to provide some form of validity to my writing. Since what I write are more commonly known as “opinion pieces,” the requirements for such research are considered by most to be lax compared to a more common news piece. I apologize that my desire to go above and beyond the typical amount of research still did not meet your standards.
    I’m also sorry that my “loose analysis” and “subjective pseudo data” didn’t manage to provide any new information for you, even though they did end up supporting what you already knew to be true.
    I am curious as to how something that you already know to be truth, as you stated above, can also be considered BS. In most circles that I am involved with, truth and BS cannot be one and the same. I realize that Portland has become known as a counter-culture city in recent years, but if you have managed to create a universe that actually allows truth to actually be BS at the same time, please enlighten us to your ways, as I’m sure many readers would be interested in this parallel existence. I bet some scientists would also be interested. Please don’t hold back with your teachings, as I would hate to see any local innovators be deprived of their rightful place in history.
    Finally, as a fan of comedy, your premise of farting and vomiting on my keyboard might be even more captivating to me than the parallel universe you may have created. Perhaps we could be friends after all, despite what readers of this exchange might be thinking, because you and I clearly enjoy the same forms of entertainment. Unfortunately, while I did purchase an extended warranty with my new laptop just a few months ago, and could therefore fart and vomit on this keyboard like it’s never been farted or vomited on before, I cannot imagine surviving the downtime that would result from performing such an innovative feat onto my own personal property. If that were to happen, I would be deprived from being able to immediately respond to intelligent replies such as yours. Again, I have to apologize to not meeting your standards.
    Clearly I have fallen short of your expectations. Which is ironic, given that the gist of this article was discussing how the Timbers have fallen short of our expectations. It must be sad to live a life full of disappointment. I guess you’ve lumped me into the same group as Merritt Paulson. I’m not quite sure how to respond to that, but I think it’s safe to assume there are worse people out there to be lumped together with.
    Thank you for taking the time to put together an argument that was well thought out and explained in a method that most anyone can understand. I look forward to hearing from you again soon.
    Sincerely,
    –Andrew
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:56 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Canadian Dude Bro Association says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 7:44 pm

    Was it something I said? This could have been avoided if you had not made fun of my Beckham Fanboy Club.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:57 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Andrew Brawley says:
    Monday, July 30, 2012 at 10:57 pm

    At least use the same handle when replying. It’s OK though, since you used the same email address that I can see in the dashboard.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:57 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Canadian Dude Bro Association says:
    Tuesday, July 31, 2012 at 9:17 am

    I know you can see the email Andrew. ;) I’m just pulling your leg. I’m actually a fan and a friend. Just thought I would spice up the comment thread a bit, because if we can’t play some mild pranks during a season like this then all hope is lost.
    Link  •  Reply
  • 07/16/2016 2:58 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Andrew Keough says:
    Sunday, August 5, 2012 at 1:04 pm

    AndrewB is ‘spot on’, as the scalpers who once were able to re-sell tickets for $40-80 a piece, are now forced to give them away for $10(or less) once the action starts. Even though the weather has improved, and you would expect more casual fans to be flocking to the stadium, there are too
    many other factors impeding that progress, such as:
    Best summer weather we have seen in 3 years
    All the stories about every game being sold out, and a huge WL.
    Almost 90+% of the matches are on tv, so why not watch it
    on your big screen(at home, or at the bar) where food and drinks are
    far cheaper. >>> For the non-casual fan like myself, I wish the team were
    at the top of the standings looking down on the rest of the league, but it would
    make it more difficult to obtain tickets if they were. I think within 5-6 years there will
    not be a wait list, as the bandwagon folks will have cut bait and left their seats to other
    fans.
    My two cents, Andrewk
    Link  •  Reply


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