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  • 05/22/2013 11:00 AM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)

    —by Mike Coleman

    Note: you can click on any graphic to make it larger and more readable

    Welcome back to the latest installment of the power rankings. Each week I look at a bunch of power rankings, and amalgamate the results here. Typically I look at six reports, but this week its only 5 (ESPN, Bleacher Report, Sporting News, MLS, and The Oregonian), as Soccer By Ives hasn't yet published any rankings for week 12 (which is understandable with all the news coming out yesterday about Manchester Yankees City Football Club).

    When I look at the rankings I take an average to see how teams stack up overall, and then also look at points in the past 5 games as another measure of form. Additionally I look at the average movement in the rankings week over week for each team. Finally I use standard deviation (which is a way of looking at the variation in a set of numbers) to see how much agreement there is between 'the experts' (a low standard deviation indicates a high level of agreement, a higher standard deviation could indicate a high level of disagreement).

    Here are this weeks raw numbers:


    So, as you can see we have a new number one. The surging New York Red Bulls have benefitted from a very nice run of form plus some late game heroics from Tim Cahill that took down the the Galaxy to move past FC Dallas (who were torn asunder by Fishing Village FC this week). The Timbers fell a spot (from 2nd to a tie for 3rd), but there is a wide variety of opinions on where they should be ranked (more on that in a few paragraphs).  And while some things have changed at the top, things at the bottom are pretty much the same as they ever were - with D.C. United bringing up the rear once again.

    If you look at points through the past 5 games (PP5G), it's pretty consistent. Most teams are with in 4 spots in the rankings of where they can be found in the PP5G. The relationship between ranking and PP5G is much less volatile than it has been in the past few weeks (I've only been doing these rankings since Week 9)

    In terms of winners and losers - this week's big winner (again) are Fishing Village FC (you do remember this is being hosted on ta Timbers Army website right). After scoring 4 goals for a 2nd week in a row, and taking down the consensus best team in the league they jump an average of 3.8 spots (adding to the 5.3 spots from last week). In other news, New York picked up a respectable 2.4 spots. This week's big loser was the Dynamo. They dropped a whopping 3.6 spots after dropping 3 points at home in convincing fashion to New England.

    As far as standar deviation goes, this is the first week were there was no team that we ranked the same across the board (in previous weeks DC United and FC Dallas were ranked the consensus worst and best respectively). In terms of both rankings and movement Portland is the team the 'experts' least agree on. If you look at their individual rankings 3 of the 5 'experts' have them at #2 but the other two have them at #5 and #6 - that's a pretty huge disparity. Additionally in movement one 'expert' kept them at #2, two others moved them from #3 to #2, and the other two experts dropped them from #4 to #6 (MLS) and #3 to #5 (Bleacher Report). FC Dallas is in a similar boat as Portland - being the 2nd most debated team in both movement and rankings. In their case they rank anywhere from #1 (MLS) to #5 (Oregon Live) (they also have two rankings at #3 and one at #2). Clearly folks didn't know how much to read into what happened up north.

    For folks who want to see trends over time, here are the average rankings for each team form Week 1 - Week 12 and a graph that is painful to look at and virtually worthless



    Well that's it for this week, if you have question, comments or concerns - let me know.

     

     


  • 05/18/2013 11:34 AM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)

    —by Chris Rifer

    Now it’s a home and home.  Obviously thinking of the team’s effort to retain the Cascadia Cup, that was the sentiment from Caleb Porter in the postgame press conference.  Any number of times on Saturday, however, the Timbers could have found themselves chasing the race for the Cascadia Cup.  As they have done over and over this season, however, Portland found a way to secure a result and come out of BC Place with a point.

    Despite the Timbers’ exertion of control over much of the first ten minutes, Vancouver came away with the first legitimate chance on goal.  After Futty blocked a pair of Caps chances in the tenth minute, Gershon Koffie found himself in space 20 yards out, but sent his shot well high.

    Portland would turn its possession into a golden opportunity three minutes later, when a Diego Valeri shot from a tight angle on the right escaped Brad Knighton’s grasp and bounced tantalizingly in front of goal, but Rodney Wallace couldn’t find a way to push it across the goalline before Vancouver cleared it behind for a corner.

    Six minutes later Ryan Johnson got loose on the left side, but his dangerous low cross evaded a Timber’s finishing touch and skipped harmlessly across the face of goal.

    There would be no evading a brilliant set piece from Camilo three minutes later.  After Will Johnson got suckered into a soft foul on Camilo just outside the box on the right, the Brazilian hammered the ball inside the near post to give the Caps their first goal against Portland in this building.

    As they have all year, however, the Timbers reacted calmly to the concession and came right back.  In the 30th minute Diego Valeri and Darlington Nagbe combined on the weaker left side of Vancouver’s defense to give Valeri a little bit of space.  The Argentine fired a cross to the top of the six where Rodney Wallace got head to it, but Knighton made a deceptively difficult save above his head to preserve the lead.

    After controlling almost 70% of the ball in the first half, there was a feeling at halftime that there was a goal out there for the Timbers.  That goal came in the 52nd minute after Andy O’Brien clearly handled a Will Johnson shot in the box, prompting the referee to blow for a penalty.[1]  The Captain coolly stepped to the spot and buried the penalty.

    As good as the Timbers’ response to their concession was, their reaction to equalizing was equally bad.  Two minutes later, the Timbers’ defense, Will Johnson prominently included, needlessly flattened at the top of the box after a Whitecaps attacking throw.  Koffie—who was the best player on the field for much of the match—took full advantage of the space and curled a beautiful shot into the net.

    The ensuing minutes were among the nerviest of 2013 for Portland.  While Vancouver had a hard time getting into gear to put the game away, the Timbers struggled to find the midfield dynamism they have showed so often this year.  For much of the next twenty minutes it looked like the Timbers’ nine-match unbeaten streak was fated to come to an end in Vancouver.

    That fate was seemingly sealed in the 81st minute, when Futty gave a little tug to Camilo in a footrace for a Nigel Reo-Coker long ball.  The Brazilian cast a line in the water by tumbling to the ground, and the referee took it hook, line, and sinker, giving the Gambian a straight red card for denying a clear goalscoring opportunity.

    Certainly the Timbers couldn’t find their way back a goal and a man down.  The Caps would discover, however, that it’s hard to stop a runaway Trencito.

    After Will Johnson picked up a loose 84th minute header in the center of the field, he lobbed a long ball forward into the path of Jose Valencia.  Trencito handled the ball on the way down, but both the center referee and the linesman’s views were obstructed, and after a deft cut back shed his defenders, the youngster slotted past Knighton like he’d been there a million times.  For a player who doesn’t have many moments on the field, the young Colombian sure seems to make them count.

    Despite being up a man, Vancouver couldn’t seriously threaten to pull ahead once again.

    The result is huge for Portland.  Not only does it run the unbeaten streak to ten games, it also levels the Cascadian playing field, as the Timbers have erased their two-match away disadvantage by earning draws at Seattle and Vancouver.

    Game on.

    Notes & Observations

    • Sort of a strange performance from the Timbers.  While they were often sloppy in their passing, Portland still managed 63% possession and a respectable 79% pass completion percentage. The Timbers shot themselves in the foot on multiple occasions, including both concessions, but battled back.
    • This team’s pluck is uncanny. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a team that can rally as consistently and as often as the Timbers have in 2013.  Saturday marked the fourth time in the ten-game streak that the Timbers have fallen behind on the road to come back and earn a result.
    • Six of the Timbers’ results in the ten unbeaten have come on the road, surpassing the total number of road draws and wins the Timbers earned in 2012.
    • There may be hay to be made on the rest of Portland current three-match road trip.  The Timbers’ next two games are winnable fixtures at DC United and Chicago Fire, whose eleven points combined are eight fewer than Portland’s 19.
    • The reemergence of Koffie is the difference between the Whitecaps on Saturday and the Whitecaps two weeks ago.  He was fantastic Saturday and could make the Caps dangerous going forward.

    Timbers Grades

    Donovan Ricketts, 5 Completely helpless on both concessions, but he also didn’t bail his team out on Saturday.  Average day for a goalkeeper.

    Michael Harrington, 3 Another poor performance in a generally poor month for Harrington.  Upgrade his seat from lukewarm to toasty.

    Futty, 4 Can’t pin either concession on the center backs, and Vancouver’s other chances were limited, but Futty needs to be a little bit smarter with Camilo.  Yes, it looked like a dive.  But it would have been a shocker if he hadn’t gone down in the face of even a penumbra of a touch.

    Andrew Jean-Baptiste, 6 Whereas Futty struggled with Camilo, AJB used his width to good effect in controlling him on a number of occasions.  Good showing from Jean-Baptiste, who stated his case to pair with Pa Kah when everybody is healthy and available.

    Jack Jewsbury, 4.5 Decent game defensively, but Jack had a couple opportunities for dangerous crosses that he didn’t capitalize on.

    Diego Chara, 7 The best Timber on Saturday.  Had a difficult task in matching up alternately with Reo-Coker and Koffie, and showed very well.  Was a touch looser in his passing than usual, but was massive in winning the ball back in midfield.

    Will Johnson, 5 This is a tough grade.  A goal and an assist will generally earn a player an impressive scorecard, but he was culpable on both concessions for failing to mark Koffie and giving Camilo the opportunity to hug the turf leading to the set piece goal.

    Diego Valeri, 4 As tough a game as Valeri has had.  Didn’t do too poorly in the opening half hour, but as the rhythm of the game got choppier, Valeri looked increasingly uncomfortable.  Right now Diego is the prohibitive favorite to take home the Diego Chara Award,[2] given to the player with the biggest difference between him home and away performances.

    Darlington Nagbe, 6 Went down early, but was very effective in combinations and using his movement to open spaces in a Whitecaps defensive midfield that seemingly had a lot of them early on.

    Rodney Wallace, 6 Rod had a tough task running into the right side of a Caps’ defense that features Y.P. Lee and Andy O’Brien.  Wallace did well, however, nearly finding the net twice in the first half.

    Ryan Johnson, 4 A step off all day, as he had a couple crucial moments that weren’t quite right, including having his steps wrong in collecting a perfectly weighted ball from Kalif Alhassan in the second half.

    Kalif Alhassan, 5.5 Pretty poor in the first half, but Kalif worked into the game nicely as the second half went along, settling the ball in the center of midfield and feeding it out to promising attacking areas.

    Frederic Piquionne, 6 This was a nice example of good Frederic.  Held the ball up well and distributed nicely after he came in.  Once the Timbers pulled level, Piquionne did a decent impression of a right back to add some extra defense.

    Jose Valencia, 7 Okay, Vancouver fans, it was totally a handball.  But showed poise well beyond his years in calmly cutting it back, rendering Knighton helpless, and rolling it past the keeper.

    Preseason Prediction: Timbers 2, Whitecaps 2.  Valeri,[3] Jewsbury.

    Actual Result: Timbers 2, Whitecaps 2.  Will Johnson, Valencia.

    Onward, Rose City!


    [1] While we’ll never know, it looks like Johnson’s shot may have been goal-bound.  While Knighton may have been able to palm it away, the lane was open for the ball to nestle inside the far post.

    [2] While Chara is now fantastic home and away, it wasn’t always so.  One of the reasons for the Timbers’ road foibles in 2011 was Chara’s mediocre form outside the friendly confines of Jeld-Wen Field.

    [3] On a penalty, no less!



  • 05/17/2013 11:13 AM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)

    107ist is organizing a Central Oregon away day to view the June 8 match v. Chicago.

    Central Oregon has a lot of Timbers supporters but has yet to establish a coordinated group like some of the other areas in the state. We're hoping to bring dozens of TA along to share ideas and help them network together and jump start their group.

    We're coordinating with Bend supporters for the right venue (kids allowed) and seeking a hotel partner. We are also exploring a possible service opportunity for Saturday before the match. These details will be finalized soon.

    There's great camping and recreation in Bend and the surrounding area. If you want to join us camping, Tumalo State Park has a few dozen spots still available, Loop C is where we're setting up.

    So start planning and join us in Bend for the Chicago match!


  • 05/17/2013 11:11 AM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)
    Join fellow TA Twitterati at 107ist partner Sellwood Public House in attempting to have reasonably normal in-person interactions with people you may or may not have ever actually met. Luckily there will be beer available. While themes of previous editions of the Meet and Tweet have alternated between naïve hopes for the new season and crushing disappointment over the current one, this event promises the opportunity to exchange nice words about things that are actually happening.Whether your tweet count is ten or ten thousand (or zero, for that matter), if you know what #RCTID is, you are welcome to attend. This is one event where no one will mock you for looking at your smartyphone in the middle of a conversation.

    Saturday June 1st 7:00PM

    Sellwood Public House - 8132 SE 13th Avenue, Portland, Oregon 97202

  • 05/17/2013 11:08 AM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)


    The following is a guest post that comes to us from one of those involved in creating the anti-homophobia display in the stadium prior to the dismantling of Chivas USA. The Timbers Army joins many other supporters groups around the world in our opposition to homophobia. You can see many of those displays on the Football Fans Against Homophobia web page (warning: it's in German). I hope you enjoy reading this guest post as much as I did.

    I, Anonymous,

    Am the target MLS fan: I am a male in my mid-20's, from the suburbs of Everywhere, USA.

    Never be bullied into silence. Never allow yourself to be made a victim. Accept no one's definition of your life; define yourself.

    - Harvey Fierstein

    I can't tell you exactly when or how it happened, but at some point hate-speech took over my life. Did someone pass a note around the entire school? Was this some cruel game of telephone? Who decided saying incredibly ignorant shit was suddenly cool? The first time I said the "F-word" I had no clue what it meant, but in time, “fag” and I developed a close personal relationship.

    Once profanity became mainstream, hate-speech became the schoolyard slang of kids everywhere. Throughout my adolescence "fag" was tossed around almost as much as the word "dude". The act of doing something uncool meant you were a "faggot", while anything remotely negative was quickly dismissed as "gay". Needless to say, my love of soccer, music and fashion instantly made me an easy target. "Fag" might as well have been my nickname through high school. Every time I heard the word it burned me emotionally. Even as a heterosexual male, it made me feel like less of a human, and less of a man. My refusal to play the part of the macho alpha-male made me marked among my peers. I'd be lying if I said it didn't keep me up some nights.

    Straight Americans need... an education of the heart and soul. They must understand - to begin with - how it can feel to spend years denying your own deepest truths, to sit silently through classes, meals, and church services while people you love toss off remarks that brutalize your soul.

    - Bruce Bawer in The Advocate

    In spite of the fact that I had been bullied, I was never deterred from spreading my own brand of hatred, tossing hateful words around with exceptional accuracy. I labeled anything uncool as "gay", and dismissed those I disagreed with as "fags". Even though, by now, I now understood the meaning of these hateful words, they spilled from my mouth with little rhyme or reason. The majority of the time I was substituting the word "gay" for "bad", never considering that I was essentially saying homosexuality = bad. I often think back to these times and consider all those around me who were experiencing internal struggles with sexuality, and the pain and confusion they must have felt. I had plenty of friends and classmates who were involved in long-term heterosexual relationships before coming out and my choice to stubbornly follow the crowd only added to the perpetual cycle of hatred and pain. Though I tried, passing this pain onto others did little to cure my personal misunderstandings.

    It’s important that allies truly become allies. Saying “I have gay friends” doesn’t make you an ally. An ally actually fights for something. Cleaning up your language and pointing out that it’s not right when others use hateful language makes you an ally. This creates a better atmosphere where closeted people – especially those in the sports world – can feel comfortable being themselves.

    - Tony Jovenitt

    When I was 18, I moved to Soccer City, USA, where I met my second family - the Timbers Army. Any time you're talking about a large number of people, you're bound to run into differing view-points, especially on issues considered political or religious. It didn't take me long to notice that you can find all types of people at a Timbers match. All colors, shapes, sizes, and sexual preferences. With a member-policy like "if you want to be Timbers Army you already are," how can you go wrong? I am proud to say in my many years supporting the Timbers, I've never seen a case of explicit bigotry. I am even more proud to say that individuals in the TA who may say things "in the heat of the match" have always been quickly educated on why hate-speech is unacceptable. Rather than ignoring topics some would like to avoid, the TA has embraced the education of its members. In a complete 180 from my adolescence, now referring to something as "gay" was the exact opposite of cool. In fact, it made YOU look like the asshole. I found myself cutting these words from my vocabulary almost instantly. It felt incredibly liberating to be involved in a community where the only thing that truly matters is supporting the Timbers.

    What is straight? A line can be straight, or a street, but the human heart, oh, no, it's curved like a road through mountains.

    - Tennessee Williams in A Streetcar Named Desire

    This past weekend, the Timbers Army unveiled a display in support of International Day Against Homophobia and Transphobia, which takes place Friday, May 17. Some saw this as an opportunity to counter Alan Gordon's remarks made during his last trip to Portland. Others saw this as Portland taking another opportunity to be hip and jump on the Robbie Rogers/Jason Collins bandwagon. In reality, this was the Timbers Army expressing what they've always believed - soccer should be enjoyed by everyone. This was a cry to set aside whatever differences we may have and enjoy the beautiful game (yes, you, internet comment sections). There have been comments about how safe and welcoming PTFC matches are for people of all types. If tifo displays like this spread awareness to others that may be curious about MLS, it can only be positive for supporters groups, as well as the league and its clubs. In the few days following the Anti-Homophobia display, there has been widespread support for the Timbers from sources that otherwise may not have even known the club - or the Timbers Army - existed. This outreach can be crucial to the growth of the TA. These values that have been the cornerstones of the Timbers Army since 2001 can also serve as an education and connection with new fans today.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jpmoore/soccer-fans-take-a-powerful-stand-for-gay-rights

    http://ftw.usatoday.com/2013/05/portland-timbers-international-day-against-homophobia/?sf12746072=1

    http://www.pqmonthly.com/timbers-army-takes-a-colorful-stand-against-homophobia/14479

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2013/05/13/us-portland-football-fans-choreograph-giant-anti-homophobia-rainbow-flag/

    “Football was my escape, my purpose, my identity. Football hid my secret, gave me more joy than I could have ever imagined."

    - Robbie Rogers

    The Timbers Army should be proud to lead the way on these issues. With over 10 years of equality and acceptance under our belt, we should embrace the opportunity to share our culture through these displays. There may be other supporter groups throughout the league that are still stuck in the same adolescent phase I found myself in during high school. The TA should be proud to educate others on how they too can cultivate an atmosphere that is comfortable for all soccer fans, and not just the young straight male that many view as the prototypical soccer fan. Regardless of issues they may be dealing with in their personal lives, every human deserves the opportunity to escape and experience joy. For many throughout Portland, that joy can be found on match day amongst the TA.

    Here in the North End, you are not black or white - you are green and gold.

    You are not gay or straight - you are Timbers Army.

  • 05/16/2013 11:15 AM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)

    On May 1st, Atticus taught all of us some lessons about life, love, and real magic. If you were fortunate enough to be present on that special day, you may or may not have come away with a scarf, but you certainly have memories to last a lifetime.

    Today, somebody has been inspired to spread the love in his own way. An anonymous donor had the good fortune to wind up with an extra Atticus scarf, and he wants to share in a way that will benefit others. He is offering the scarf in a raffle with the proceeds going to charity, so that others can experience some of the joy that Atticus shared with his teammates and with all of us.

    If you would like a shot at owning a tangible reminder of that special day, you can donate below. $5 gets you one chance at the scarf, $10 gets you two chances, and so on. All proceeds will be donated to charity to support others like Atticus.

    Drawing will be held on Wednesday, May 29th at 6pm at the fanladen. Winner need not be present, and we will ship the scarf to you if you can't make it to the fanladen in person.

    Link to donate is here:


  • 05/15/2013 10:47 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)

    —by Chris Rifer

    The opinion expressed here is that of the author alone, and does not necessarily represent the views of any organization, including 107ist or the Timbers Army.

    I had hoped this whole ordeal was over Wednesday morning after the Disciplinary Committee gave Mario de Luna a one-game suspension in addition to the match he will miss due to yellow card accumulation.  On Wednesday, the MLS Players Union, however, decided to breathe troubling new life into a controversy that really shouldn’t be.

    In case you missed it, after the ball went out of bounds off of a Chivas USA player in the 86th minute of Sunday’s game, de Luna tripped Rodney Wallace and grabbed at a ball a ball kid was holding.  When the ball kid pulled away – likely having seen that the referee immediately pointed for a correctly identified Timbers’ throw – de Luna pushed the young man and took the ball from him.

    After the MLS Disciplinary Committee issued a one game suspension,[1] the MLS Players Union issued this statement, in full:

    Players Union Statement on Discipline of Mario de Luna

    Physical contact between a player and a ball boy should never occur. Rather than focusing exclusively on player punishment, however, the league must eliminate ball boy antics, as the Players Union requested last year.  There should be no place in our game for off-field personnel to attempt to impact play on the field.

    The failure to address this problem substantially increases the risk of unfortunate incidents like we saw last weekend.  The league and our teams must do their part to keep our stadiums safe.  We urge the league once again to take action and hold teams accountable for the conduct of their ball boys.

    Now, if you blinked while reading that, you may have missed that you missed something; to wit, a statement on the discipline of Mario de Luna.  In fact, on its face, the statement says nothing at all about Mario de Luna or his punishment.

    A couple hours later, Eddie Pope, former U.S. Men’s National Team player and current Director of Player Relations for the MLS Players Union, added this clarification in a string of tweets:

    The intent of our press release was not to place blame on the ball boy.  Rather, the purpose was to [shed] light on the fact that we have [e]ncouraged MLS in the past to take preventive measures so this type of incident[,] or something more serious[,] does not happen in the future.  Why put a kid in a position to possibly inadvertently impact tempo of game?  Kids should not be put in any positional [sic] within or near the [h]eat of competition.  We don’t condone any contact with a ball boy, we want to prevent this from happening again in the future.  Publicly[,] we ask the MLS to take some measures and remove children from the heat of battle.  We will in turn continue to do everything we can as well.  Status quo is not working.  Third incident in a little over a year.

    Pope’s clarification, however, is disingenuous.  His overriding message was that ball kids “should not be put in any [position] within or near the [h]eat of competition.”  Essentially, the job of shagging soccer balls and tossing them to players should be vested in adults because the intensity of a soccer game can sometimes put youngsters in a difficult position, even if by no fault of their own.

    This is a perfectly reasonable point.[2]  But it’s not the one his organization made in its release.

    In its release, the Union demanded that the league “eliminate ball boy antics,” not eliminate the employment of ball kids.  Similarly, the statement asked the League to hold home teams “accountable for the conduct of their ball boys.”  It did not ask the League to prohibit ball boys.

    The Union’s press release postulated that there was no place in the game for “off-field personnel to attempt to impact play on the field.”  It did not rue putting ball kids in a position to “possibly inadvertently impact [the] tempo of [the] game.”  Using the word “attempt” necessarily implicates intent.  There is simply no such thing as an accidental, or even negligent attempt.[3]

    The Union’s ultimate thesis, then, was that failure to address this problem – the problem being ball kid “antics,” “conduct,” and “attempt[s] to impact play on the field” – “increases the risk of unfortunate incidents like we saw last weekend.”

    The issue is that the “problem” identified by the Union is not what led to Sunday’s incident.  The ball kid did the right thing.  He did his job.  And he did it well.  No antics, improper conduct, or attempts to impact the play on the field.

    The statement the Union made inescapably implied that this ball kid did something wrong.  That unwarranted public condemnation is far worse than anything Mario de Luna did on Sunday.

    Now, it’s no longer about what the Union said, or what Pope would like you to think the Union said.  Rather, it’s about what the Union needs to say to the young man that unfairly found himself in the center of the Union’s mess.  “We were wrong.  We’re sorry.”


    [1] For my part, I think the suspension was about right.  What de Luna did was unacceptable, but it wasn’t especially aggravated.  He pushed the young man.  He didn’t do anything likely to cause the young man physical harm, or otherwise use unacceptable language or employ a racial or homophobic slur.  He was a jerk and a poor role model.  One game seems about right.

    [2] I’m not sure I agree with it – or, to be perfectly honest, feel strongly about it either way – but the point is reasonable.

    [3] Merriam-Webster defines “attempt” as “to make an effort to do, accomplish, solve, or effect.”

  • 05/14/2013 11:19 AM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)

    —by Mike Coleman

    Note: you can click on any graphic to make it larger / more readable

    Welcome to Week 11's MLS Meta Power Rankings, MMPL (tm). I take rankings from six different sources (Soccer By Ives, ESPN, Bleacher Report, Sporting News, MLS, and The Oregonian) and average them out. Additionally, I also look at the standard deviation between the movement for the week and the overall rankings (this to me shows how in agreement the 'experts' are in their rankings) - finally as another really basic measure of "power" I look points in the past 5 games.


    Dallas continues to hold down the #1 spot universally across all six sources despite being gifted a PK to save 2 points against Portland (you realize you're reading this on the Timbers Army website, right?) and a not-so-convincing win on the road against the consensus worst team in the league, D.C. United.  The 'experts' also agree that the LA Galaxy are universally the 7th best team in the league (note their Std Deviation of 0.00).  The Timbers, according to these averages, are the 2nd best team in the league at this moment, their highest ranking of the season.

    If we look at movement for the week clearly Cascadia's domination over the teams from California this week paid dividends with the top 3 teams in term of spots gained were Seattle (5.3), Portland (3.0), and Vancouver (2.8). On the other end of the spectrum Chivas (3.3), Columbus (3.2), and L.A. (3.0) fell the furthest.

    In looking at the standard deviation in rank, it's apparent that the 'experts' are more in agreement this week than in the past. The outliers (New York, Montreal, and Philadelphia) aren't that far off from the rest of the league. For New York, their ranked #2 by ESPN and #6 by Soccer By Ives (they also have a two #5's, one #4,  and one #3) - clearly there is wide variety of opinions. Montreal is similar to New York in that they have a range from #2 to #6. Philadelphia benefits from a #8 ranking from Soccer by Ives when the rest of the group has them lower (one #9, three #11, and one #12).

    In movement Seattle has the highest standard deviation in their group. Clearly everyone agreed they deserved a big jump (I begrudgingly agree, and admit to almost enjoying watching them kick the crap out of San Jose), experts just weren't sure exactly how much (the movement ranged from 3 spots to 7). To some extent this is a case of some folks not having them nearly as far down the rankings as others in the previous weeks (for instance Oregonian had them at #12 in week 9 and everyone else had them ranked #14 - #17).

    Finally, I've complained the last two weeks about San Jose having a nearly league low points out of their past 5 games, but hanging around the middle of the rankings, so I'd be remiss if I didn't comment on Portland being ranked 6th as far as points earned in the past 5 games, but 2nd over all in the rankings. I think the 'experts' realize that Portland could (should) have had 2 more points out of Dallas (you do realize you're reading this on the Timbers Army website, right?). Of course it's not nearly as bad as SKC being near the top of the rankings with a whopping 6 points out of their past 5 games (I guess you get bonus rank points for snapping Houston's streak, and the Seattle loss could have easily been 3 points). And to avoid any (more) screams of homerism, I'll point out the huge disparity between Seattle's points in the past 5 vs. their ranking.

    Below is a historical graph and table showing average power rankings from week 1 through week 11.


     


  • 05/13/2013 11:28 AM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)

    Our friends, the Rose City Riveters, in partnership with the 107ist, have chartered a bus to beautiful Tukwilla, Washington to see the Portland Thorns take on the Seattle Reign on May 25th - and you can join the fun.

    Tickets are either $50.00 for both a match ticket and a seat on the bus - OR - if you've already got a match ticket you can ride in luxury for only $32.00.

    And, it's not just an outing to see the Thorns - the bus (which departs PDX around Noon from the convention center) will be stopping at Elliott Bay Brewing Company to watch the Timbers take on DC United before making its way over to Starfire.

    So if you're not going to be in DC, then what excuse do you really have to not join in?

    You can find more information and order your tickets here: http://www.eventbrite.com/event/6656585025


  • 05/12/2013 2:09 PM | 107ist Admin (Administrator)

    —by Chris Rifer

    Good teams beat the opponents they’re supposed to.  Very good teams leave no doubt.

    Right now, the Portland Timbers are playing like a very good team.  And facing a reeling Chivas USA side on Sunday, the Timbers left absolutely no doubt.

    There was never a question who the superior side was on Mother’s Day, as Portland dominated the Goats from the crack of the starter’s pistol.  Portland was unlucky not to go up in the tenth minute, as Michael Harrington picked Diego Valeri out at the far post, but the trialing hand of backup Rojiblanco keeper, Patrick McLain, made a Kennedyesque save to turn the Argentine’s header away.

    Portland unlocked Chivas again two minutes later, as Valeri found Futty streaking into the box, but the Gambian’s classy chip over McLain was negated by a proper offside call.

    The Timbers continued to dominate, and in the 32nd minute showed the most striking example of the scintillating buildup play that has marked their marked reformation in 2013.  After Diego Valeri recovered the ball in the defensive third, he one-timed forward for Darlington Nagbe.  Nagbe immediately played out wide to Diego Chara who sent the ball up the touchline to Ryan Johnson.  The striker promptly back-heeled to a suddenly free Nagbe, and the Timbers were off to the races.  The prodigy cleverly used his body and space to bring the ball into the middle, where he played it to Valeri on the left.  Valeri cut back and unleashed a right-footed shot that left McLain helpless, only to be kept out by the crossbar in a manifest miscarriage of justice.  At the beginning of that sequence, the Timbers moved 50 yards through the Goats’ midfield with four touches of the ball.  That is how football is meant to be played.

    Justice, however, has a habit of being served.  And two minutes later, Donovan Ricketts helped deliver it on a silver platter.  After gathering the remnants of a Chivas corner, Ricketts threw out to Valeri near midfield.  Valeri played back into the center for Ryan Johnson, who chipped into the path of an onrushing Rodney Wallace on Chivas’s vulnerable right flank.  Wallace nodded the ball down and lofted the ball over McLain for the opener.

    Chivas’s only real chance of the half—and, if we’re being honest, of the game—came in the 44th minute, as Edgar Mejia’s corner found Steve Purdy-Ramos nine yards out at the back post, but his reentry header was handled cleanly by Ricketts.

    The second half was more of the same.  While Portland didn’t hold quite as much of the ball, and had a couple moments of loose defending, Chivas never seriously threatened to equalize.

    And in the 70th minute, the Timbers would take the next step toward turning this one into a laugher.  After Ryan Johnson gathered near the byline and played back to Darlington Nagbe, Rodney Wallace flashed in the middle of the field.  Wallace gathered the ball and slipped it into the box, where Valeri had just run by the Goats’ defense, and the Argentine coolly slotted past McLain to ensure that his third time was the charm.

    Chivas were beaten, and for a moment the Timbers seemed satisfied to knock the ball around the midfield and let the clock wind down.

    But Will Johnson hadn’t yet had his dance party.  Wanting to get in on the action, the Captain streaked into the box from seemingly nowhere in the second minute of stoppage time, and got on the end of a low Frederic Piquionne cross, but McLain made another nice save to knock it out for a corner kick.

    The Timbers took the ensuing corner short, as Kalif Alhassan gathered it and played to Will Johnson at the corner of the box.  Johnson took a pair of touches toward the center of the field, and unleashed a right-footed shot from the top of the box that curled around McLain’s outstretched hand and inside the far post.

    While a couple results in a row had slipped away from the Timbers, there was nothing Chivas could have done on Sunday to overcome Portland’s pressure.  The gulf between the two teams was just too great, and as very good teams should do, the Timbers ran away from the Goats and never looked back.

    Notes & Observations

    • After the match, Caleb Porter emphasized that the Timbers would “keep this high low,” and was equivocal about whether he considered this Portland’s best effort of the season.  Asked whether Sunday was the team’s best performance to date, Porter retorted, “Ah, not really.  I think based on result you could call it that, but I’m looking at the performance and looking at all the little plays in the game, and you guys are always looking at the score, and a three-zero game doesn’t mean it was your best performance just because it was your widest margin of victory.”[1]  Porter added, “For me, we’re just scratching the surface of the team that we can be.”
    • I largely agree with Porter’s assessment.  Especially in the second half, there was just a little bit of shaky defending and passing that the Timbers didn’t show, for example, against Houston.  While it wasn’t enough to ever give Chivas serious hope, it wasn’t quite a perfect half from the Timbers.  It was still pretty darn good, though.
    • Portland was once again aggressive attacking down the left side.  This is, in no small part, because of the magnificence that has been Rodney Wallace’s last month.  Against Chivas, though, it could have also been something Portland saw on tape.  Both two weeks ago against San Jose, and last week against Sporting Kansas City, Shea Salinas and Graham Zusi gored the Goats down the left side.  Add Rodney Wallace—and company—to that list, as the Timbers once again had good success on the right side of Chivas’s defense.

    Timbers Grades

    Donovan Ricketts, 6 Not much for Ricketts to do today, but on the rare occasion Chivas had a sliver of intent, Ricketts was there to put the kybosh on any ambition.

    Michael Harrington, 3.5 Another rough day for Harrington, as his defending on the left side was by far the least consistent aspect of the Timbers’ performance on Sunday.  It remains to be seen whether this is just a little bit of a rough patch for Harrington, or whether his string of solid performances in April was the aberration.

    Andrew Jean-Baptiste, 5 A better performance for AJB on Sunday, as he distributed well and stayed way from the mistakes that have cost Portland in the past.  Still got a little handsy from time to time, but nothing like he was against Dallas.

    Futty, 5.5 Was intent on scoring on Sunday, but just couldn’t quite make it happen.  Had the one chance called back for offside and another header sail just high.  Futty’s grade is depressed just a little bit by some poor marking on corners that allowed Chivas to find some free headers.

    Jack Jewsbury, 6 Another solid day for Jack.  While Jewsbury will rarely generate headlines from high fullback position, his consistency there is something the Timbers haven’t had at that position in quite some time.

    Will Johnson, 7.5 Great goal, and just all around good work from Johnson.  If he was a little bit off on Wednesday, he shook that off in a hurry, as he was very good against Chivas.

    Diego Chara, 7.5 Probably unlucky not to get on the scoresheet today, as Diego again flaunted his newfound offensive game to go along with his defensive dominance.  In a little bit of a passing slump, however, as he only completed 49 of 55 today, for a measly 89% completion percentage.

    Diego Valeri, 8 Clinical finish on his goal, and got absolutely robbed twice more—once on a fantastic save and the second time by the crossbar.

    Rodney Wallace, 8.5 I’m not sure what to say about Rodney that I haven’t said in the past several weeks, so I’ll let Caleb Porter do the talking.  “Rodney Wallace is having a breakout year.  I’m not sure why he hasn’t had a breakout year up to this point, because I think clearly he’s one of the better wingers in the league, and he’s really flourishing.”

    Darlington Nagbe, 6 A little bit subtler from Nagbe on Sunday, but pretty effective.  Though he wasn’t as directly involved in many of the buildups, he often played a crucial role form a deeper lying position, including in the second goal.

    Ryan Johnson, 5.5 Really nice chipped assist on the first goal, but for goodness sake, Ryan, get onside.

    Kalif Alhassan, 6 One of his better performances off the bench.  Solid passing from Kalif earned him an assist on Will Johnson’s goal.

    Ben Zemanski, 5.5 A like-for-like swap with Jack Jewsbury, Zemanski came on and played well at right back again.  If Harrington continues to struggle, the answer may be to move Jack back to the left—where he was perfectly adequate—and bring Zemanski in on the right where he may provide a little bit more offense.[2]

    Frederic Piquionne, 4 Saves his grade a little with a nice cross to Will Johnson in stoppage time, but overall this was one of Frederic’s bizarrely ineffective performances.

    Preseason Prediction: Timbers 2, Goats 0.  Valeri, Silvestre.

    Actual Result: Timbers 3, Goats 0.  Wallace, Valeri, Will Johnson.

    Onward, Rose City!


    [1] There seems to be a little bit of an inverse relationship between the quality of the Timbers’ play and Porter’s postgame demeanor with the press.  In addition to repeating his suggestion that the assembled media only care about the scoreline, Porter took the MLS website to task for publishing headlines suggesting the Timbers were cocky.  “As much as MLS Soccer tries to create headlines that make us cocky, we’re not a cocky team.  I’m not a cocky coach.  I’m very humble, my players are very humble, and we don’t get too high or low, we don’t talk trash.  MLS Soccer puts headlines up that make it seem like that—unfairly.  The reality is we’re very humble, we go into every game and we respect our opponent.  We don’t think we’re going to walk out on the field and just automatically, magically win games.  We know we have to put the work in for ninety minutes to get out of the game what we want.  The reason we’ve been on a nine-game run without losing is because we stay humble and hungry, and we don’t get complacent or overconfident.  So as much as MLS Soccer is trying to paint us that way, that’s not the way we are.”  As Jerry Maguire’s rival agent, Bob Sugar, put it, “it’s not ‘show friends,’ it’s ‘show business.’”

    [2] I don’t think we’re at a point where this should be seriously considered just yet, but Harrington’s seat in the starting eleven is warming gradually.  Probably not much more than lukewarm right now, though.



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